Break Time

I hope you're having a good holidays and have a happy New Year. The blog this time is pretty short, since it's been a rough week. There might not be a blog next week, or it might be on a different day than Friday.

Is He Still Alive?

Bob Newhart. I remember him from Newhart, a show that ran from 1982-1990 in which he played an innkeeper. I was never a huge fan of the show but watched it some. I may have been too young to appreciate it. I've seen him on Johnny Carson on YouTube since then. He was born in 1929, which would make him 88 if he's still alive. Statistically, that doesn't look good for a man. However, the wealthy have access to phenomenal healthcare that most people don't. What does Wikipedia say? It says, Bob Newhart is still alive! And according to IMDB, he seems to still be working as an actor on television.

UNC vs Wofford

I saw something new this week: the Bob Ross Chia Pet. When I was trying to learn to paint, I watched tons of Bob Ross on television. Every once in a while, I'll see a Bob Ross reference in popular culture. I had no idea he was such a widespread phenomenon that he has his own Chia Pet. I'm also kind of amazed that Chia pets unlike Bob are still around. He passed away in 1995. :( His shows still run on PBS.

So, when it comes to sports, I generally watch my few favorite teams but don't follow other teams or a sport as a whole. Sometimes, I'll leave an ACC game on in the background or a National League game. I don't watch American League games, because that's not authentic, American baseball. Nothing with a designated hitter is. This week I was going to watch a Perry Mason from 1961 I taped. The book after AoE is supposed to be a mystery. I've been taping Peter Gunn and Perry Mason to get the old flavor and to see what older shows were like. I was shocked when Peter Gunn used his car phone in a 1959 episode. I thought those were invented in the 70s. Whoa.

One night I fixed something to eat and was going to watch Perry Mason. A UNC(University of North Carolina) game was on. They're not my team, but they're in the ACC. My team has to play them at some point. UNC was playing Wofford, who had barely beaten Georgia Tech a few games back. Since two of Tech's best players were out and another was playing injured, it was not a quality win by any stretch. Wofford scored right before the buzzer. If Tech had had all their players, they would have won easily.

Going into the game against Wofford, UNC was ranked #5 in the country and is last year's national champion. Wofford was unranked and had never defeated a top 25 team. Based on the Tech game, I figured I'd watch three minutes of UNC stomping Wofford and then watch Perry Mason while I ate. Unfortunately, UNC had some early turnovers. After three minutes Wofford was actually ahead. I had to keep watching. Wofford kept the lead for over 6 minutes before UNC finally got on track. Wofford came back but fell behind due to poor shooting. UNC took a good lead, and I was getting ready to switch to Perry Mason. Then Wofford went on a run and was ahead at the half. How could that happen against the 5th best team in the country? They barely beat an injured, suffering Tech team. On the whole the first half was a bit of a nail biter.

It turned out to be an amazing game. I was on the edge of my seat. It's one of those classic underdog victories against a giant. Wofford ended up winning 79-75. Wowie Kablowie! You can see an article here. It doesn't really show how awesome the game was. Beating Tech seemed like a bit of a fluke, but maybe Wofford is for real. They played hard the entire game and completely deserved what ended up being a spectacular win. Hats off to them. If they keep it up, they'll be in the tournament in March.

Is He Still Alive?

This week's Is He Still Alive features Lindsay Wagner. I remember her mostly from The Bionic Woman and The Six Million Dollar Man. Looking at her IMDB entry, she was in tons of things I didn't know about, but is she still alive? Born in 1949, she would be 68. Statistics are on her side, but you never know what can happen on an individual basis. Nevertheless, according to Wikipedia, Lindsay Wagner is still alive! IMDB tells me she's also still working and has something coming out next year.

Time to Pivot

I saw Grav3yardgirl in a commercial! I couldn't believe it. If you've never heard of her, she makes tons of YouTube videos. She has a series called Does This Thing Really Work? I've watched some of those in the past. The premise is she opens and tests products sold on television that make people ask themselves, Does that thing really work? Some of them were funny. And if you've ever been tempted to buy one of those products, you can see ahead of time what it's really like.

There was good news and bad news this week. It snowed, and I lost power. It kept going on and off. The longest stretch of being off was maybe 5 hours. I didn't lose anything in the freezer or refrigerator, because I had ice ready for that. That was the good news.

I've been talking about starting a business and doing research. In one of those blogs I mentioned going to the dentist. It cost $103. What I didn't mention was I had a followup visit scheduled for this week. Since I don't have dental insurance, it cost $570. One of my motivations to start a business was for health insurance. So, hmm. That was a big hit to the business account. I'm going to have to put some thought into what to do now. I may take what's left and invest it for a year. I'm not sure.

Is He Still Alive?

Kirk Douglas. He was born in 1916 and had a serious stroke in 1996. I remember him mostly from the 80s, when he was in various movies. Statistically, his chances of being alive are very slim, since he would be 101. Who lives that long? Nevertheless. Is he still alive? Absolutely! He turned 101 on the 9th.

Party in Jerusalem

The U.S. recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Celebration and outrage abound. The news is interesting, but will it change anything? I'm waiting to see whether the embassy actually gets moved. Recognition of reality and moving the embassy are completely different things. Even if the embassy is moved, it will almost have to be moved to western Jerusalem and not eastern Jerusalem that the "Palestinians" claim as theirs despite the fact that Israelis have been buying as much of it as they can, making it more Israeli all the time. At some point the "Palestinians" won't own enough of it to care about fighting for it any more.

And if the U.S. moves the embassy, will anyone else? I'm sure some nations will, but what about the ones who are moaning and screaming so much today? Are we going to have a situation where some embassies are in Jerusalem while most are still in Tel Aviv? That's a lot of driving back and forth. :)

I have a silly theory. Jerusalem is about twice as large as Tel Aviv. That means it's twice as happening and has twice as many parties. Partying is about the self not about God. The nations who don't care about God are into self. They'll go where the parties are.

Is He Still Alive?

I forgot to do Is He Still Alive? last week.

Martin Mull. Not just an actor with a long career but also an artist. Mull was born in 1943, which would make him 74. That's a borderline age for men. I remember him mostly from the 80s. He's in something that comes out in 2018, but is he still alive? Yes, according to Wikipedia, Martin Mull is still alive!

 Have a great weekend.

AoE and More Lottery Thoughts

This week I finished another pass through AoE. It was mostly polishing things and making changes based on feedback. I'm pretty much to the cover stage. I'm still not sure exactly what it will be. The other day I mentioned I paint a little as a hobby, but I'm not an illustrator. I'm also not good at painting the human figure and might want to put humans in the middle or background. Since it's a spy type book, I had a thought that maybe I could paint a figure with a hat pulled down low like you sometimes see on spy books. That way the jawline would be detailed, and that's a lot easier than a complete face. Another idea would be a silhouette of a side profile. A closeup side profile might work, too. I'm going to have to experiment and test something out and see if I can actually do it.

A few weeks ago I had a blog titled What If You Won a Fortune? that was a more realistic look at some of the taxes, challenges and expenses of wining a smaller amount like $5mil. I don't play the lottery, but I like seeing people win. I occasionally like to think about what I'd do if I won a fortune. Since that blog, I've watched some interviews with lottery winners to see what they had to say about their plans.

Some people don't know what they're going to do. I can understand that. Buying a house is a logical first choice as is traveling. How much travel? Would you want to buy a house that would sit empty for what might be weeks at a time? Is that safe? Where would you live? The choices would be endless. Would it make more sense to rent while deciding precise plans? It would be a huge adjustment with an overwhelming number of decisions.

I saw at least two winners who put the money into a trust. I'm not at expert on that, though it looks like it has some interesting options for transferring money to relatives. I saw a few winners who hired lawyers and a financial management company. The people who did that didn't claim the prize right away. They waited until everything was in place, which could take a number of days or weeks. I thought about that. They could have claimed the prize, put it into an interest-bearing account and set up the financial team while drawing interest. A winner in the UK said he was earning £800 a day from interest. Today that would be just short of $1,078 a day. That would make quitting work and driving around to meetings a lot easier while putting a team together.

Why wait to start earning money? In the blog I linked to, I referenced the federal tax rate on lotteries as being 39.6% with 25% due immediately and the rest at tax time with state taxes on top of that. A normal savings account(fraction of a percent) or money market account(1.24% perhaps) would pay a low return compared to an investment account(6% minimum). By waiting they're maximizing the interest payments and offsetting more of the taxes. Basically, they would get to keep more of the money and use the tax money they owe to earn interest in the meantime. Waiting a week or two to be able to keep more of the money makes sense to me.

So, if you ever won something, hiring a financial management company before claiming the prize would let you start earning good returns from day one while mitigating taxes. Even if you never win, learning more about what people who win do will enable to you better manage your money. It's worth it to look into a little. It gives you ideas and options you can use today you might not have known about.

Have a great weekend.

Tesla and Another Business Concept

It was another week of working on AoE. I've been doing another pass to polish the prose and fix miscellaneous details This one is more in-depth than the last one so it's taking longer. Nevertheless, I'm slowly getting ready to push it out the door.

Last week I mentioned Tesla is bankrupt on paper. I ran across an article this week that puts it in a more sophisticated way. They're structurally bankrupt. It doesn't mean they can't recover. With enough cash they could. It just means they're bankrupt today and for the foreseeable future including all of 2018. They keep making avoidable mistakes.

I remember when Amazon only sold books and couldn't make a profit either. They were able to turn things around. Tesla could do something like that. Theoretically. Amazon expanded to non-book products. Tesla is kind of stuck in the car/battery business. Although, I personally think they could sell riding lawn mowers like this well-rated Ryobi. Only three one-star ratings out of 182. Very solid. Unfortunately, Tesla makes lithium ion batteries. The Ryobi is lead acid, which is much cheaper. A Tesla mower would be around $4,000 or more like this lithium ion Cub Cadet. They wouldn't have to make the lawn mower. They could do a licensing deal and take a royalty or do a partnership deal supplying the batteries. Where they would get the batteries for all the lawn mowers I don't know. The current Gigafactory wouldn't be able to keep up with their car demand if they could figure out how to mass produce cars. It would never be able to do car and lawn mower batteries both. They've already been talking about needing more Gigafactories.

They could sell a lot more than cars if they really wanted to. The Tesla brand is powerful. People would buy things just for that alone. Golf carts, bikes, aircraft. Or premium batteries that last. Consumer lithium ion batteries use a liquid core that leaks and doesn't last. Tesla makes a solid core battery that lasts practically forever. It's a completely different experience than something like a cell phone battery. Instead of selling hundreds of thousands of cars, they could sell tens of millions of other things. They wouldn't make billions like they could on cars, but unlike with cars they would actually be making a  profit. The reason they don't is because the profit wouldn't be enough to offset the massive losses on the cars. Other products would not save the company.

So, I've been talking about wanting to start a business and throwing out some ideas. Here's another one. A lot of people sell things on Amazon. It's not a real business, but it can make a lot of cash. One way of doing it is to find niche products that sell well and source them from China. I had to go to the dentist last week, and the dentist recommended a water flosser. I looked at different ones on Amazon, including this one, this one, this one, this one and this one. You might be thinking they're all the same one with different brand names. You would be right. People have sourced this product from China and China and China for a minimum order of 500 pieces at $16.80 each going down to $14.80 for larger quantities. To even get started selling that flosser costs over $8,000. Many products are way cheaper than that, but the figure I've seen for getting started on Amazon with a product for a real business is around $4,000. It can be done fast and dirty for less, of course. The way to do it right is to start a real company with its own web site and use Amazon as an extension of that.

For American readers I hope you had a great Thanksgiving yesterday. For international readers I hope you had a great Thursday yesterday. :)

Have a great weekend.

AoE Progess and So Forth

Last night I finished the latest pass on the next book, AoE, going through it making fixes and changes based on feedback. I'll need to go through it at least one more time and also do a final read through. I still need to figure out a cover. I have two choices. I can pay for one, or I can paint one. Book covers are illustrations and not usually paintings. Paying is out, but I'm not sure my skills are up to a cover. I've been considering concepts that would look good but could still be a painting. The big problem is the human figure. I'm not very good at painting it. Putting people in the middle ground or the background might be doable. It would require fewer details such as facial features. I'm wrestling with it.

As previously mentioned, I've been looking at starting a business and mentioned artist's paints. Here's a video of a guy who does that. It gives a general feel of the equipment and space required. He makes oils. I would want to do acrylics. My impression now is that start up costs are too high, and it would probably be hard to scale up the business. Plus, I don't have the space.

Tesla. I've been following them for years. I was a huge fan until the Solar City bailout. That's when I put the Kool-Aid down. It made no sense. Solar City costs them an estimated $1bil a year. Mass production of the Model 3, which is necessary to save the company, hasn't happened yet. They won't be able to produce 5,000 cars a week until at least March. It looks like they'll be able to make around 180,500 cars next year unless something dramatically changes. That assumes the 5,000 per week starts March 1. Sometimes I read analyst's assessments of Tesla. From what I've read Tesla's either at or near the point that they wouldn't be able to make a profit even if they sold 200,000 Model 3s a year. They have too much debt, inefficiency etc. They're almost out of cash and are going to have to raise more very soon by borrowing or selling stock. I'm not an analyst, but I think they'll sell stock. They've already borrowed a lot and have sold corporate bonds. They can't keep doing that. Selling stock is much easier.

Tesla revealed a commercial truck last night. It's supposed to start production in the future. Where? They don't have a factory for that and don't have the money to build one. Same question for the new Roadster they revealed. Where would it be built? If they use the factories they already have, they would have to stop production on the other cars or only produce them part time.

I was a huge Tesla fan for a long time, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they can avoid bankruptcy. They're already bankrupt on paper. Even if I could afford one, I wouldn't want to buy from a company that's not profitable in the hope they'll make it. Assuming bankruptcy, would the new owner honor the warranty or alter it? I don't know. I don't know how long the bankruptcy procedure would last either. How would the car be serviced during that period? I'd love to have an electric car. Tesla's off the table until they can make a profit. The Chevy Bolt is off the table, because it's so ugly. That leaves the Nissan Leaf. The range isn't that great, but I know they'll be in business later.

Tesla's only chance seems to be to get production of the Model 3 closer to their 10,000 units a week goal. Right now they're doing about 260 a month. The longer they wait the harder it's going to be not go go bankrupt. There's going to come a point where even 300,000 units a year won't be profitable. The clock is ticking.

Have a great weekend.

What If You Won a Fortune?

What would you do if you won the lottery, the Publisher's Clearinghouse Sweepstakes or some other contest where the prize was millions of dollars? Chances are you already know. If you don't, reflect a few moments before reading on.

The cliché answer is buy a mansion or an expensive car or pay off bills or travel or retire, etc. Those aren't bad things. The problem is people don't usually think about the realistic details. Let's look at the reality of actually winning. More people win a million dollars or five millions dollars than a huge jackpot. A million isn't enough to buy a mansion or even retire. But what if you won $5,000,000?

The federal tax rate for a lottery win is 39.6%(25% due immediately and the rest at tax time). State taxes vary. In my state it's 6%. Combined taxes would equal 45.6% or $2,280,000. That leaves you with $2,720,000. Let's pretend you bought a miniature mansion, a new car, various sundries, gave to relatives and charity and so on for $1,000,000, leaving you with $1.7mil. That's not $5mil, but it's still a decent amount.

Figures for upkeep on a mansion vary widely from around $10,000 a month to the ten of thousands and include various things. Let's pretend you have an energy efficient bargain that costs $2,000 per month for the basics such as heating and cooling and grounds keeping and so on, costing you $24,000 a year. That would cost about 1.412% of your total winnings. Year two would start out at a cost of about 1.432%. And that assumes no other expenses at all, including food. After ten years you would be down to $1,460,000 with a cost of about 1.64%.

Even if the prices stayed the same, the percentage of the total would increase over time. Inflation would also eat away at your buying power. These examples do not account for inflation. A real mansion with maintenance of $10,000 a month would cost $1,200,000 in upkeep over ten years, putting you on the path to bankruptcy. And this doesn't include new cars, food, clothing, travel, life emergencies, home repairs and redecorating, etc. This is a glimpse into why so many lottery winners end up broke. They don't look at the $1mil upkeep bill over ten years. They probably just look at how much they currently have, think, "I can afford that," and buy the mansion. This is also a glimpse into why we see so many celebrity mansions for sale in the news. Their big deals only come for so long. If you hit the big time, I want better for you. How can you win and have it all, too?

The wealthy don't spend their own money. They spend other people's money. To have it all, you would need to do that, too. Let's say you won $5mil, spent a million for a decent house, a new car and all those other things and then wanted to live off the remaining $1.7mil. Most people would budget something like a set dollar amount per year: $30k, $40k, $50k, etc., and spend it like it was a salary. That's spending your own money, money that would run out over time. I want better for you.

The wealthy invest their money and live off the interest. Easy to say, but how exactly do you do that? If you wanted to buy a car, instead of paying cash you would make an investment that would make the car payments for you. At the end of 5 years, you would have the car and still have the money. That's the kind of mindset you need. You need to spend money on things that make money. There are various ways to invest, depending on your level of risk. A savings account is the wrong way. The interest will never keep up with inflation. You may have more money on paper, but you always lose buying power due to inflation. So, think back to the large number of celebrities you've seen who buy or start restaurants. It's easy to understand. There's good money in it. Another way is rental property. Vacation rentals make more money than a family home. Buying and renting out an apartment on a beach could work. The stock market is another way, but be careful. Starting or investing in businesses is a way. Find the niche that appeals to you. Lending money makes money. Places like Prosper.com and Lending Club allow you to loan as little as $25. Basically, you act as a bank sifting through loan applications and assessing risk. These are some ideas that work, but I'm not an expert. At the end of the day, you would need to do your own research or hire a consultant with a much broader perspective than mine who could give you percentages and risk assessments.

Six percent interest is very conservative. In the teens or higher is getting into more risk, depending. Let's say you decide on at least an 8% return and find areas in which to invest that you like. If you invested the entire $1.7mil, you would earn $136,000 per year. If you went with the miniature mansion and your home expense was $2,000, it would cost about 17.65% of your earnings. Most importantly, it would be 0% of the $1.7mil. If you spent less than your interest earnings, the $1.7mil would continue to grow and earn more and more allowing you a better and better lifestyle over time.

Instead of thinking, I have $1.7mil I can afford a $50k car, the thought process needs to be, This car costs $50k. How can I structure an investment that pays for it without losing capital? If you already have investments, you can think, What percentage of my budget will this cost? Is it really worth it? That's how the wealthy stay wealthy. They don't use their own money. If you ever hit the big jackpot, now you're better prepared to join the elite and stay elite.

Is He Still Alive?

Rich Little was born in 1938 and began his acting career in 1963. I remember him from the 80s, when he was the master of voice impersonations(see YouTube), mimicking presidents and celebrities to the delight of all. I hadn't heard mention of him in a long time until I ran across his name the other day. It made me wonder, is he still alive? According to Wikipedia, he is still alive! And still working. He will turn 79 on the 26th, just a few short days away.

Lying Fake News In Action

I don't do politics here very often, but a piece of fake news in The Washington Post caught my eye that was so heinous I had to post. The title of the article is "Trump, who urged people to 'hire American,' secures 70 foreign workers for Mar-a-Lago". The article says, "President Trump recently won permission from the Labor Department to hire 70 cooks, maids and servers to work at his ritzy Mar-a-Lago Club for the tourist season...He’s contributing to an influx of 2,159 immigrant workers snapping up the temporary jobs in Palm Beach County."

My goodness that sounds terrible. But hold on. The article has more to say. Speaking about July the article says, "Mar-a-Lago was applying for H-2B visas to hire non-American workers. Mar-a-Lago is only open during Palm Beach’s winter season, when members descend from colder climates." Speaking about Mar-a-Lago and an unnamed golf course, the articles states, "It’s unclear whether the Trump Organization had made an extra effort to try to fill the jobs."

Hmm, that's a bit confusing. The title says Trump himself hired foreign workers. The article says Mar-a-Lago did it while also saying the Trump Organization did it. That's three different entities. Which one of the three actually hired someone? If the reporter who wrote this article is a journalist, he should be aware of current events. Apparently, he isn't. As widely reported in the press, such as Forbes, Trump is no longer involved in running his businesses. He has placed them in a trust to be managed by others while he's president. Even as late as April, this trust was in the news. He became able to withdraw money from the trust, since he's not taking a salary from the government.

Despite the title of the fake news article, Trump did not hire anyone. He's no longer involved. Even if he was, he would not be involved in day-to-day hiring. Journalists know this. But what if Trump had hired those people? It would prove he's not a racist! It would prove he accepts anyone regardless of ethnicity. But we should already know he's not a racist from history. He won an Ellis Island Medal of Honor in 1986 and posed with Muhammed Ali and Rosa Parks. More about this award here. A partial quote: The Ellis Island Medals of Honor embody the spirit of America in their salute to tolerance, brotherhood, diversity and patriotism. And in 1999 none other than Jesse Jackson praised Trump for his lifetime of helping the African-American community. Video here.

The media accuses Trump of racism despite his history of helping minorities while at the same time accuses him of hiring minorities. Am I the only one who finds this kind of double-think weird? Is Trump the racist who loves hiring minorities? This article is a deliberate attack. It's basically hate speech. A liberal journalist hates Trump and spins an article in a way that makes him look bad to his base. This is happening in the media all the time. I don't know how many stories I've seen in the press that slant facts to create a fake version of events.

If journalists no longer have the integrity to report facts, they need to find a different job. This kind of hate speech has gone on long enough. They lost the election fair and square. It's time they got over it and moved on. It's time they stopped the deliberate lying. This is not real journalism. This is real hate.

A Concrete Business Example

I've been talking lately about starting a business without being too specific. One idea I've had for a while is to start a paint manufacturing company making acrylic artist paint. It would sell by the tube and by the jar for maybe $10 to $15.

Artist paint is made from various materials in the earth, pigments, and a binder. It's basically pigment and binder. To get just the right consistency or color, quite a few artists buy the raw materials and make their own paint. It's not difficult. I've identified an easily available pigment material that I've never seen used as a paint color. The idea would be to use it to make my own pigment and specialize in that color as a niche market. If I wanted to do other colors, I would have to buy the pigments and manufacture from those. Alternatively, for the other colors, I could use private labeling, a tool that's widely used for a variety of products.

One of the drawbacks is cost of entry. Not only would I have to buy paint manufacturing equipment, I would have to buy the equipment to grind raw material into pigment powder. A certain amount of the paint packaging side of it I could do by hand the same as others are doing for their own paints, but I would need real equipment for processing the pigment. I would also need a place to set all this equipment up and store containers and labels and pigment, etc.  And if I got a lot of orders, doing things by hand, while fine for getting started, would not be a realistic option.

I mentioned Shark Tank last week. I've still been watching it. One of the questions investors ask business owners is, What's to stop the big companies from doing the exact same thing and crushing you? That's a huge drawback to the paint idea. If it's successful, anyone else could mine this material and make the same color. I would be first to market, but they have huge name brands already.

On the other hand I might could make a decent business selling raw pigment to paint manufacturers. If I was established and already making the pigment, it might make sense for them to buy from me. The goal with either business would be to build it up to the point where a big player would have to buy it from me.

Let's talk money. According to the internet, the average yearly salary in the U.S. in 2016 was $44,148. Assuming 30%(not a real number) profit per paint tube sold, I would have to make $147,160 in sales to make that. If the price was $10 a tube, I would have to sell 14,716 tubes a year or 40.3 tubes a day. Realistically, I would have to put a certain amount of the profit back into the business. Equipment upgrades or repairs, a part-time employee, advertising, etc. Those kinds of sales would likely not happen the first year and maybe not for a quite a while. Starting out, I might sell only a handful at first.

When I talk vaguely about starting a business, this is the kind of thing I mean. I'm looking at things I could start small and then grow into something. This kind of gives an idea of how complex and slow the process of building something really is. I'm trying to find something that's relatively inexpensive to start that wouldn't drive me crazy while I worked at it. Some businesses require specialized knowledge or the right contacts. There are so many factors involved.

Is He Still Alive?

Is he still alive is a new segment to the blog. I saw an interview of Groucho Marx on The Dick Cavett Show. I was very surprised to learn that Groucho Marx died in 1977. Growing up, I had the vague impression he was somebody from the 1930s, which he kind of was. He was born in 1890 and made multiple movies in the 30s. I heard of him all the time as a youngster, and people did impressions of him a lot. Hawkeye, Alan Alda, on M*A*S*H, for example. I would see people doing the impressions but never see Groucho. I assumed he had died a long time ago. Seeing the interview made me wonder how many of the people I used to see or hear about so much are still alive.

He was before my time, but occasionally I would hear and still occasionally hear mention of Dick Cavett. Is he still alive? I assumed he was dead, but no. He's still alive! He's 80. Congratulations to him for beating the odds.

Have a great weekend.

Business vs Hobby

I turned on the television one night, and Shark Tank was on. I don't remember ever watching it, when it was big. I never got into most of the reality or reality-type shows that people later found out were heavily scripted and not so real. One I did watch when it first aired was the Joe Shmoe Show, IMDB entry here. It was different than the others. Everyone on the show knew it was fake except one guy. He was the only non-actor on the show. If you like things that play with perceptions of reality, it might be worth a look. The original one, I mean. I never saw the later one.

Nevertheless, Shark Tank seemed interesting and isn't really a reality show like the garbage ones. If you haven't seen it, it's about people making pitches to investors to raise capital for their businesses. The investors are the "sharks". They either invest or don't while giving reasons why or why not. Since I've been looking at starting a business, I decided to leave it on in the background. Some of the advice is quite good. Mark Cuban gives some very insightful comments. I wish he was allowed to go further in depth. The show feels heavily edited for time. The flow was smooth, but I have the impression the pitches last a lot longer than what's aired.

One of the sharks is the "mean" one. He told one of the businessmen that if he wasn't making a profit after three years it wasn't a business; it was a hobby. At first I thought he was being mean for the show, but my first thought was of a company I know that's been around well longer than three years and has never had a profit. I realized one day that it wasn't a business. It was a hobby. What the shark said only confirms that assessment. So, I pondered that and my own efforts in life.

Instead of being mean, what I think he was saying is something like this. In three years an entrepreneur will find a way to make a business work. Three years will show whether the businessperson is truly dedicated and determined to succeed. There has to be a drive there that pushes someone to overcome all the obstacles and pushes him or her toward success. Within that time frame any flaws in the business model will become apparent. Whether changes need to be made will be apparent. The good things and bad will be exposed. If things aren't working after three years, there's a fundamental problem that needs to be fixed. An entrepreneur will find a way to fix the problems or move on to something that will actually succeed.

As I keep researching for my own business attempt, something I've kept in mind is whether I have the right mindset and drive for success. I've been looking at various options. Once started, will I have the determination to push through to the end? I have to choose the right path. Shark Tank is interesting. It gives me more things to think about.

I may have the business idea narrowed down to two concepts. I'm leaning toward one of them more than the other, but the risk is higher. Financially, I think I might be ready for something between January and March, assuming all goes well.

Have a great weekend.

Examining Excuses

The Cubs barely squeaked by the Nationals before going on to face the Dodgers, who have the best record in the majors this year, in the National League Championship series. I followed the Cubs this year but not as closely as last. It was too painful. They lost or traded some key players. David Ross retired. There was nothing that could be done about that, but I didn't like it when they traded Dexter Fowler away. Money decision? I don't know.

Before the championship series began, my first impression was the Cubs would be swept. Then I thought, no, they might win one game. Then I thought about the games against the Nationals and thought they would be swept. Then I thought, no, surely they'll win at least one. I finally decided they would either be swept or win one game. No other outcome. That was my final forecast. They lost three, won one and then lost the last one. Sad, but it's good to be right. At least I had that.

I got to that decision point by watching them during the year. The Cubs really struggled the first half. The excuse that kept being given was "World Series hangover". I didn't think so. The biggest problem I saw was the bullpen kept blowing the game, which is how they lost in the post-season. And the starting pitching wasn't as good as last year. But let's get back to the World Series hangover excuse. Think about that in other terms. "We're failing because of our success." "We're failing because we're the best." "Our success is the main reason for our failure."

When you hear people like politicians giving "reasons" for things along with elaborate explanations, it might be helpful to put what they're saying in other terms. The Cubs didn't lose because of their success last year. The lost because they didn't have the same caliber of players and not everyone on the team played as well as last year. It's okay to be honest. People can usually handle it.

Other Stuff
I've been waiting on some late feedback for AoE. I've considered asking for it, but it's hard to pressure someone for what at the end of the day is a favor. This week I continued forward with final corrections using the feedback I do have. I'm still considering what kind of cover to do that my painting skills would be adequate for.

I mentioned a surprise I wanted to do for someone I know who's having a hard time. It got delayed when the tropical storm passed through. I think I'm going to schedule that for December, assuming I can really pull it off.

I'm still weighing options on starting a business. It would be a major step. My tolerance for risk is very low, so I'm being very cautious.

Have a great weekend.

Negative People

There are a couple of people in my life who have a tendency to go immediately negative about things. If a topic comes up at random, they have a habit of become skeptical. I could cite a web site about whatever it was or various facts. It doesn't seem to matter. Their minds will close to the possibilities. Having a reasonable amount of skepticism in life is generally a good thing. I have a healthy skepticism myself but my goodness. Facts are facts. I may not always like them, but I don't close my mind down like these two people.

What do you do when people in your life have a toxic negativity? What do you do when it's continual about multiple areas and it's toxic? I keep having the urge to kick them both out of my life and to stop having anything to do with them. But I'm not sure that's the right thing to do, and it's not completely realistic. Everyone goes through seasons in life. This year, for instance, hasn't been that great for me. I've had some times when I was feeling really down. Regardless of how I felt, I tried to explore new possibilities. I wasn't always able to come up with answers, but I tried. Maybe they're in one of those seasons. Both of them? At the same time? It's possible.

I could keep being patient. I could point out the negativity and ask what the cause of it is. One of them would explode if I did that. I could see them as a test. I'm still trying to figure it out.

If that's too sad, I'll leave with some laughs.

Comedian Tim Vine.

Comedian Milton Jones.

Have a good weekend.

Tentative Plans

Can I be honest a minute? This has been a long year. I've been tired a lot. Things have not always worked out the way I wanted them to. I've had times of discouragement and times when I laughed better than I have in years. Let's hope this coming year is better.

I've been feeling somewhat burned out and like I need to get away and do something relaxing or maybe nothing to recharge my batteries. I've been thinking a lot about a real vacation. If you're a praying person, that's something to put on your list. At least once. It would be more expensive than I can afford at the moment for what I'd like to do. I would need a financial break in some area. And then there's the problem of who to ask to go with me. I have two candidates in mind, a first choice and a second choice if the first one said no. I don't know either of them very well at all. The plan would be to do stuff during the day and have separate rooms at night. I have no idea if I could get along with either of them for a whole week. They're acquaintances. That's something else for your prayer list. At least once.

So, it's time I got some real book covers. I've painted for years, but that's not the same as illustration. I'm not sure I have the technical skills to do a great cover, but I know I could do something. My plan is to create a cover for the YA book and the mystery/romance. The mystery/romance is something I'd throw out under a pen name and see what happened. I'm not sure it works. If it failed, it failed. If it worked, groovy. I'd probably do another one.

Here's something else for the prayer list. :) A while back I started an Amazon store but didn't have enough cash for the right kind of inventory I needed. I sold a few things but ended up shutting it down from lack of inventory. I've been saving a little every month and have started thinking about starting a business, especially if book covers don't improve sales. Amazon is an option, but I'm thinking of other things such as a retail location or a restaurant. Initial funding would be problematic. I'm pretty limited in what I could do. I've mentioned Uber and Lyft recently. Those might be something to try short-term. I have other ideas, too.

Right now I'm trying to collect ideas for perhaps getting something started after the first of the year or possibly later, depending on what startup costs would be and what it is. Amazon would be faster, but it's not the best thing. Where I live is experiencing a lot of growth. A physical store might work very well at this time. I'm trying to think outside the box. I'll let you know more as things develop, if they do.

Have a great weekend.

Old House Finishes

I follow Circa on Facebook. They post links to old houses like this one. Isn't that dramatic curb appeal? Beside the house information is a menu that lets you look at old houses that are or have been for sale. Some are nice. Some are in bad shape. I've perused some of the ones in my and neighboring states to see what's out there.

Circa stuff shows up in my feed a lot, but I generally focus on Victorians and ignore the rest unless something reminds me of the houses I used to see when I was a kid. Times were simpler back then. I also watch some of the house hunting shows on television. I've noticed a very disturbing trend: people painting wood white. In the old days people stained wood. Painting it is a little like blasphemy. If the wood is on the outside where it rains, it's okay to paint it. If it's interior trim, it's most likely blasphemous to do anything but stain it.

If you have to shop for a replacement for a piece trim or a window, something consistent appears. Look at the sample pictures for these windows and doors, building supplies and moulding buying guide. Nearly all of the samples are white. When you go to the store, it's the same way.

In a previous post I mentioned that after looking at a lot of Victorians modern houses feel sterile. Here's another observation. White is not a color. It's a neutral default manufacturers use as a primer so they won't have to carry so much inventory by having multiple colors. People are supposed to paint the primer an actual, real color. It's not supposed to stay that dead white.

A lot of times I'll look at a Circa house or see one on television that has all the door frames and trim work painted white. A house built in the 1800s will have all that beautiful woodwork painted. People made that by hand and carved it by hand and took pride in their work. Painting it steals the house's soul! I'll see white cabinets. I'll hear people casually say they can paint wooden cabinets. No. It's probably blasphemy.

People, show some taste and refinement. White is a default. It's not a color. If wood is painted, the grain can't show. Its soul has been stolen. Would elves paint the wood in their houses? Of course not. They would enjoy the natural beauty of the wood. You should, too. Staining is permitted. It lets the grain show through and can even enhance it. Painting is an act of blasphemy.

In all of Middle Earth Bilbo and Frodo never saw a single piece of painted trim in any elven dwelling. It's a lesson for all of us.

Have a good weekend.

Is Your Deodorant. . .Killing You?

I was picking at the label on my deodorant, when I noticed a health warning: Ask a doctor before use if you have kidney disease. They put the first part in bold type for emphasis. Finding a warning for a daily-use product is disturbing. What is this stuff doing to people's kidneys? Forget kidney disease. What is it doing to healthy kidneys? Is it causing damage? Is it making them work too hard to clear out chemicals? Does it depress kidney function in some other way? I can't help but wonder if this deodorant is doing fractional damage that accumulates over the years to contribute to kidney disease and failure. Who would notice? Maybe people who already have kidney disease. Maybe that warning label means healthy people should stop using that product. Is anything we use safe?

I did a little research and found this link that kind of makes it sound like the warning is nanny-state nonsense to healthy people. This link seems to think deodorant is safe. The whole thing makes me want to switch deodorant. I can't help but wonder about the alternatives. Is there some ingredient in them that hasn't been tested the way the scary warning label deodorant has? What if I switch to something that has no warning label only to find out later it was the scariest one of all? Is anything we use safe?

So, the other day I mentioned a stray cat that comes around that I named Nelson. When my mom found out I had named a cat Nelson, she was scandalized, because a woman she used to go to church with lives across from a widow whose deceased husband was named that, and I simply could not use that name in case she ever found out. I had to rename the cat Patrick. We don't know any Patricks. Here's a picture of Patrick:

Isn't he cute?

So, the local paper had a story about the Hurricane Irma, which was a tropical storm by the time it hit us, damage. Remember a while back I mentioned I was supposed to get fiber internet, but the company doing it changed its mind, and I ended up with nothing from them? The paper said the fiber was out for 5 days. Isn't that something? My 1.5Mbps el cheapo copper line was back in less than a day. Just something I noticed.

Have a good weekend.

Tropical Storm Irma

Hurricane Irma. My area wasn't in the direct path of what by then was Tropical Storm Irma, but that didn't seem to matter. Sustained high winds still knocked down trees and damaged buildings and knocked the power out. Not everyone has power yet. Across one of the roads was a power line people had to drive over until yesterday. I think it was a power line. It could have been an internet or phone line. A traffic light outside of Cleveland, GA was still out then, too. It's taking a while to clean up and get things repaired, even traffic lights. The state has to inspect bridges to make sure they're safe before some of the power lines can be fixed. Is that a dumb rule when society has no electricity? Something to ponder.

I lost all the food in the freezer and refrigerator. It was peanut butter for breakfast. The way I do food is to cook meals ahead of time and divide it into portions and freeze it. Also, I'll cook something like chicken and freeze it and then use it to make something later. It's a lot faster and easier to warm something up than to make each meal. So, I lost a month's worth of eggs, the rest of the month's lunches and maybe a week of dinners plus things like mayonnaise and mustard. Before the storm, the bread aisle at Walmart looked like this:

The cheese section was hard hit, too. After the storm, when the power was back on, I expected the worst. I figured there would be people like me out buying new food to replace the lost. It turned out to be a normal day at the store. Despite having to go to two grocery stores, I was able to find everything on my list.

On the whole I found Irma to be much more stressful than anticipated. Blowing debris striking the side of the house in the dark while waiting to see if a tree will hit the house is no fun. I heard two trees fall in the woods and something big crack. Leaves are everywhere.

On a different note I've been looking at Lyft. I was thinking maybe it would be something to do to get by on for moving somewhere else. From what I've seen so far, after expenses it pays about minimum wage or a little better. It depends on location, and it's extremely unstable. It seems to be good as part-time work or during the holidays. That's a shame. If it paid a decent wage, I was kind of thinking about moving to Savannah or back near where I grew up. Apparently, to make it work requires 50 or 60(or 100 depending on location) hours a week at odd, non-consecutive hours of the day and night. I might still try it and see how it is. I'm going to have to do more research finding driver reviews. What I've seen so far is not encouraging.

Have a good weekend.

Pricing on the River Cruises vs Other Options

A quick update on last week's blog about European river cruises to include more pricing numbers. A 15-day cruise like this would cost $15,798. That's one cabin with a balcony for two people. It's very possible to get a half-price deal that would make it $7,899. I saw quite a few of those while researching it. The prices include air fare. Tipping the staff and so forth would be extra. So, half price for 15 days would make it $526.60 per day.

A rental of a house or apartment such as listed on https://www.vacationrentals.com/ could start in the $35ish per night range, but realistically it's closer to $50 a night and up. So, 15 days would cost at least $750 plus air fare, making it $1,500 a month. A car rental would add to that, although France has an extensive train system. A car might not be necessary.

Last week I mentioned a rental for maybe half a year would be the cost-equivalent of a river cruise. Here's the math on that. A full-price $15,798 cruise divided by $1,500 for a rental is about 10.5 months. With the half-price deals, it comes out to 5.26 months. When you include the tips, it's closer to six months. It's kind of crazy how expensive some of the cruises are. It makes a lot more economic sense to rent an apartment or a house for a couple of weeks.

On to other things.

This woman I know has been going through some difficulties lately. I want to help, but other than feel bad for her, we're not close enough that I can do anything without intruding. However, an idea came to me for something that wouldn't be sticking my nose into someone else's business. Remember how fun it was to get a surprise when you were a kid? I can give her a surprise. It wouldn't help the situation, but it would express sympathy. Sometimes that's all that's needed. And it would be fun for me. It wouldn't be as fun as The Mysterious Package Company, which you should totally check out because it's awesome, but nevertheless fun.

The best part is that she would never suspect a surprise was coming. I don't know her very well. It would be a complete and total shock. The idea is that she would be going through her normal day, and then, something completely unexpected. So, to make it happen I'm going to have to do some planning and figuring out of things. I have an idea in mind for something that would be meaningful to her personally, but she might read the blog. I don't think she does but still. Mentioning it might ruin the surprise. This may takes at least a few weeks to develop and even longer to arrange. There would be pictures later of the surprise. Hopefully, it will be a lot of fun.

Have a good weekend.

European River Cruises

Things haven't been going well, and I've been trying to think more positively. Just because things are negative doesn't mean I have to give in to that, right? One hopes. I was thinking again this week that traditional wedding vows might be too negative. For better or for worse, for richer or for poorer, in sickness and in health. Isn't that speaking curses into people's lives? What if I changed it to something that would bestow blessings? For better or for best, for richer or for richest, in health and in healthy longevity due to anti-aging treatments. Maybe that last bit needs some polish, but doesn't that sound so much better? Why would I want take a vow of poorer or sickness or worse? No way. I don't want those things in my life. I'd prefer to be happy and well off.

Something I've wanted to do for years is take a European river cruise. Viking River Cruises is one of many companies that do those. I like their balconies more than the others I've seen. I could picture myself sitting on the balcony after a day of touring talking about the sights and planning the next day's adventures. An Eight-day or 15-day cruise in France. I'd like to do either one of those, if money was no object, which it is. The listed prices are actually half the real price. Those are one-person prices with a two-person minimum. Ugh. I wish they would be more honest about that. Some of the other companies will waive the double fee, if you're. . .alone. Sadly, I'm. . .alone. It's okay to feel sad for me, if you want to. One of the other cruise operators has an impressionist painting trip I'd love to do, but they don't have balconies on their ships.

At the moment, if I wanted to take a female friend with me who was only a friend, it would require two cabins. I need to win the lottery. If only I played it. After looking at some of the prices, I decided to see how much it would cost to rent a house in France. Hotels and apartments around Paris start at about $48/night. That would be something small and basic. So, for the cost of a cruise, I could rent a place in France(probably not Paris) for possibly up to half a year. Isn't that crazy? Cruises used to be called luxury cruises. We need to bring that expression back.

I could spend the entire summer in France with maybe a week or two in Tuscany and still come out cheaper than a cruise. Autumn in Europe? I could imagine that. The problem is money. If that was no object, I could see myself living in France for a year. Maybe not Paris, but I would visit there. Seeing the Louvre is mandatory.

Sometimes, it's good to sit back and dream a little dream. I give you permission to take some time for yourself this coming week and dream a little.

Have good weekend.

The Okay American Eclipse

I live in the path of the recent solar eclipse in an area of 100% totality. I was able to see it. I also saw some of the news coverage. One man talked about how emotional it was, which he didn't expect. One of the reporters mentioned how emotional it was, too. Mmm. I don't think so. I saw other people talking like that as well. I hate to say this, but it was just an eclipse. It wasn't an emotional experience. It's a big shadow. Shadows don't make me emotional unless they're coming up behind me holding a weapon. :) I was playing this video game one time that had a day/night cycle, which created moving shadows. I was standing alone on this planet during a rare moment when I wasn't running or driving, and I saw what looked like someone's shadow walking up behind me. That was more emotional than the eclipse. That scared me, because it was technically possible for that to happen, although it was mostly a solo game with no other players. When you're the only person on a planet, and you see the shadow of a helmet, it gets your total attention fast. It turned out to the tip of a hill.

One of my friends on Facebook said the eclipse was beautiful. I thought that was a good and much more reasonable comment. The eclipse was neat. The problem was it didn't last long enough. It didn't get as dark as they said it would either. There was a band of light around the horizon. The clouds were gone by then, so there was no surrounding sunset effect. Basically, almost nothing the experts said would happen actually happened. It gave me the realization that they don't know what they're talking, because they've never been through one. They were only reporting something they've read about in a book. It's not the same thing.

After all the hype it was a bit anti-climactic. I saw two or three stars during the darkest part. Just when I was getting used to it, it started getting brighter. I couldn't believe it had been two minutes already. It made me feel sorry for the people who drove a thousand miles or some long distance. A lot of people did that. A lot of people put so much time and money and effort into what ended up being a two-minute experience.

Have a great weekend.

Why the Russia Story is Fake News

I don't much politics, but...

 

Ever since the election, Democrats have been trying to link Trump with the Russians despite the fact that the previous administration issued a report citing no link. Why does the story continue? The Democrats are weaker than they've been since the 1920s. They can't do much politically, so they're resorting to non-political tactics such as rioting, burning cars, smear campaigns, racial incitement, etc.

Here's why the Russian tactic is fake news. If there had been any proof whatsoever that Russians tampered with the election, the results would have been thrown out and new elections held. Period, end of story. The fact that that did not happen proves there was no tampering. At least not by the Russians. The government would have been legally forced to do the elections over. However, this would not have affected most people. Like the Republicans and Democrats do when they cheat in elections, the Russians would have targeted specific districts. Only the results in those districts would have been thrown out. What would have happened was that counting of votes and certification would have proceeded normally in nearly all districts except for a few. New elections would have been held within a couple of weeks. It would all have been over in time for the December tally. None of that happened, because there was no tampering. By the Russians, I mean. The normal tampering was there and will not be investigated.

One may argue that the reason there was no proof of Russian tampering is that that an actual investigation would have exposed Democrat and Republican tampering. That is a valid point. Did you notice there was no real investigation into it? Because it would have expose the real cheaters. It was all talk and accusation by politicians with no substance. Have you noticed the story keeps going as a series of accusations while never finding anything real? That's part of the political tactic. The government has always met with Russians. It's their job. Hillary did it all the time. Creating a news story every time the Trump administration tries to do its job in relation to Russia is completely dishonest and purely a political strategy.

While I'm on fake news, I should mention the racial tensions. During his terms, Obama almost never spoke about racial matters except in statements that were carefully designed to incite racial strife between whites and blacks while at the same time were carefully designed to leave Hispanics and other races out of the incitement. Have you noticed that the racial tension since Trump took office is only between whites and blacks while being careful designed to leave Hispanics and other minorities on the sidelines? Have you noticed the incitement is being ramped up only since Trump took office? If I were a conspiracy person, I would believe that the money behind the KKK stuff is coming from the Democrat party or its allies. We know they were running ads on Craigslist for rioters after the election. We know they were funding riots. The KKK thing seems like a continuation of that political tactic. The Democrats are the only winners in this.

If the racial tension were grass-roots and real, it would be between other races, too. We would see blacks against Hispanics, whites against Asians, multiple races against Muslims, etc. We're not seeing that, because the money behind the racial strife isn't paying for that. It's being spent to incite whites and blacks against each other the same way Obama was doing, when he was in office. Hispanics are the largest minority now, not blacks. If there was genuine racial tension, wouldn't it be between whites and Hispanics, since they're the largest groups and have the most opportunity to rub each other the wrong way? Hmm.

Trump has spoken out against racism for years and was even given an award at one time for his hard work hiring so many minorities. He cares about the color of people's money not their skin. Have you noticed all the accusations of racism leveled against him while he has never said anything racist? Like the Russian thing, it's a series of accusations with no substance. It's a Democrat political strategy.

The point of what the Democrats are doing with all this fake news and racial strife is to drown out real news. Trump has been fulfilling campaign promise after campaign promise. I saw the other day that over a million jobs have been created under Trump. Stories like these are being ignored or distorted in a sea of fake news. If Trump were a Democrat, all we would hear from the media would be stories of his accomplishments and how amazing he is.

Have a great weekend.

Feedback for AoE

Here's the first page of AoE. This is the latest draft, not necessarily the final draft. I ran it through this. The asterisk is where the feedback stopped.

      Keelia sat down on a park bench beside a man in a dark suit. “The fox runs swiftly.”

      “Except in deep snow.”

    “Unless it's Christmas in July,” she objected, following the script that appeared as a transparent overlay in her vision.

      “Do you have the package?”

      “Do you have the money?”

      The man removed a thick envelope from his suit coat and opened it, thumbing a stack of old-fashioned Benjamins. Keelia pulled out a sealed, matching envelope. Warily, they traded. The man stood and moved to leave.

       “Aren't you going to check it?” She put the cash in a pocket of her maroon blazer where it would vanish and be credited to her game account.*

He paused and turned his face toward her, never directly looking, merely showing profile. “You know the penalty for a double-cross. You'd be tracked down like a dog.”

      Keelia grinned as he walked away. They had written that line because of her. In Avatars of Espionage beta, she thought it weird that the non-player character, a computer-controlled person, didn't verify the delivery and had questioned him. The system flagged it. The developers added the extra response. Every once in a while she ran the A Timely Delivery mission just to hear him say the words.

     “Are you done with that quest yet, Alice?” Noemi asked in group chat, which functioned at any distance in the game world regardless of geography. For tonight's missions the group were all in Reality City.

The feedback was this:

"The concept of a code phrase has been pushed almost entirely into humor at this point so it’s likely going to be tough to set a serious scene that opens with an exchange of code phrases. I’m being a bit nitpicky, but the script is not transparent (presumably) or it would be extremely difficult to read. The description of the exchange seems like stage directions because there’s no emotional context to what’s happening. This tense exchange turning out to just be some sort of exchange of game credits is a bit anticlimactic. I think you’re trying to rely too much on mystery when you would probably do better with a straightforward opening."

I haven't had time to absorb this yet and think of a way to change it. Nevertheless, it's YA for teenagers. They don't know all the clichés and tropes yet. To them, a code phrase would probably be cool, but hmm. Most of this page is a disguised prologue. Shh. The exchange isn't the story. Its purpose is to set a certain tone for the rest of the book and establish expertise of the main character. Does that mean the story starts in the wrong place? Maybe so. Starting it somewhere else would mean major changes or a complete re-think of the first chapters. The transparency thing is technically correct, but in computers a window that can be seen through but still read is always referred to as being transparent. However, to accommodate normal people, I'll change it to nearly transparent. Anticlimactic. Probably because it's a disguised prologue. That may be another indication the story starts in the wrong place. That or I shouldn't worry, because teenagers haven't seen it all before, and won't notice a thing. It depends on the market, I guess. No emotional context/stage directions. Hmm. The character is following a script she has followed multiple times. The emotional payoff is after that in the grin. Nevertheless.

I suppose the prologue could be dumped altogether and the story start with final paragraph of page 1, but that would require some rethinking. Could I work that tone into the rest of the chapter instead? Hmm. It wouldn't be the same, but...

So, anyway. These are my first rough thoughts on the feedback. I haven't had time to ponder them deeply yet. The problem is that changing things is changing them to fit what publishers like not what readers like. Today's standards were not true yesterday and will not be true tomorrow. Readers like what they like. They don't care what publishers like. I suppose it's going to come down to whether I try to sell this book to a publisher or to readers.

Overall, I was hoping for better, but it's helpful stuff. It gives me things to think about and direction for improvement. What I really need is to be able to afford an editor so I can fine tune my skills. Or a mentor.

Have a great weekend.

Coasting

I decided to do this after all. Some of the feedback for the first week have been posted but not mine. I tried this last year, and mine was never posted. This year I wasn't in the earliest submissions and almost skipped it, but I changed my mind. If the feedback shows up and is good, I'll summarize it next week or provide a link to it. If it's bad, I'll probably do the same.

It's official. The owners of the Braves have given up on this season. The trade deadline passed with no last-minute deals. The team had a good chance to make the playoffs, at least for one game. Making it to the World Series was out of the question, of course. It's a shame the owners don't care about the game or the fans. They're in it for the money. I boycotted the franchise for a while until they replaced the team manager with someone better. Sadly, the owners are going by the just good enough principle, which is based on a scientific(?) finding that people will use an inferior product that's "just good enough" as long as the product works. The finding discovered that products don't have to be "the best", as long as they're not broken. People will put up with a lot. It was in the news a while back, if you want to try to find it. The owners consistently field a team that's just good enough to keep the profits rolling in while not caring if it's the best. As long as you promise to patronize the team's sponsors, I give you permission to walk your dog the rest of the season.

I've mentioned a path in life God may have shown me. I was waiting for confirmation, because it seemed a bit improbable. This week I received two negative confirmations. One showed me something about it that was definitely not in line with the word. The other didn't appear to be. Bummer. It would have been incredibly challenging but amazing. I'm extremely disappointed. Nevertheless, God could change the circumstances of those things into something that could be his will. If he does, I'll let you know, but it's not something I'm praying for any more.

Last week I mentioned a major announcement that should be coming this week or next. It hasn't worked out the way I hoped. Back around 2009 I took a DNA test. In 2013 I had the best match so far, but I couldn't see all of the man's data. Part was public and part private. That was right after my dad died. I didn't feel like emailing the person. He had the wrong last name. Much later I did, but there was no reply. Last week I got an email. In the data I can't see, he said there was a 53% chance I was his brother. Whoa!

He was born in a foreign country, when my dad was in the navy. We swapped a couple of emails. I asked him to set the permissions so I could see the rest of the match data. He said he would but never did. I provided some information. I haven't heard back from him. Since then, I've done some digging and discovered my dad was not in the man's birth country the year before he was born. He may be a first cousin and not a brother at all. It's a 50/50 chance either way. I may have a brother, or I may not. I have no idea when or if he'll write back.

Have a great weekend.

Those Magnificent Victorians

AoE has moved into the test reader phase. As you'll recall, the main character is trapped in virtual reality. The A stands for Avatars. More on E later. I still haven't decided whether to run the book through this or not. I tried it once before but never received feedback on step one.

In the book there's a Victorian house. Sample images here. It's not a big part of the story. Specifically, it's an Eastlake Victorian "with modifications". Since I've learned more about that style of house, I may change it to a Queen Anne in the final version. The house in the book has a tower. Towers and turrets seem to be a bit of a staple with Queen Annes. Regardless, it's a setting in virtual reality and not a main part of the story.

It turns out I quite like the Victorian style. I've decided, when I'm rich, my house will be a custom-built, modern Victorian. I saw this company on This Old House. They make reproductions of old houses. I don't see a Victorian in their lineup, but if they specialize in old houses, someone else does, too.

I really like Victorian woodwork. After studying pictures of it, the individual pieces look relatively simple. A door frame might have three grooves carved into it. The trim around the gutters isn't very complicated. Patterns might be circles, starbursts or simple swirls. Individually, they're not very impressive. When the pieces are all put together, however, the whole is more than the sum of the parts. They create a luxurious feel that feels like home to me.

Of course, in my modern one the rooms would be bigger. The stairs would not be too steep or narrow. Wood paneling would be minimal at best. Wallpaper. I used to hate wallpaper. I'm still not a fan of every style of it. However, when it's done right, it adds to the luxurious feel of the house. There would be some wallpaper. I think the problem with wallpaper is two-toned paper. For it to start looking decent, it  needs at least three shades of color to give it depth. And it can't be too busy. Three color values creates dimensionality and makes it feel more like a piece of furniture than a flat two-toned paper.

After researching Victorians and then seeing a modern home, the modern ones feel sterile and empty. Even in an empty room, the woodwork in the Victorians is a decoration on its own. They don't have an empty feel to them. I watch some of the house hunting shows. In modern houses, if a room is empty, it's really empty. Whoever is viewing a house has to work to imagine the space being beautiful. They have to speculate on paint colors and furnishings to even be able to imagine living there. Or the real estate has to do the thinking for them. Or the seller has stage the house with furniture that is sometimes rented just for that purpose. When the owners move in, they have to fill the space with knickknacks and tchotchkes to make it "feel like home". And they take all that for granted without realizing how sterile modern houses really are. In the Victorians that feeling of hominess is build into the house already. Furniture is almost a bonus. A million decorations to imprint the owner's personality into the setting aren't necessary. It's kind of like the house itself says it all. Maybe the house represents the owner's personality instead the knickknacks. I'll have to think about that more later.

So, this has been the summer of distraction. I mentioned a while back a path for my life God may have shown me, very distracting. I'm still waiting for some kind of solid confirmation. This week has had another distraction that I can't talk about now, but it looks like it will be a major announcement in the next week or two. More on that then.

Have a great weekend.

AoE Status

I finished going through AoE, the next book, again. I'm not sure it's "perfect", but it's in decent shape. There will be at least one more going through after tester feedback. I'll probably run it through Novel Boot Camp writing workshop. I tried that last year and never got any reply to the first submission, which was the beginning step, so I'm less than enthusiastic about trying again. There was a bit more unpleasantness with lack of updates and direction, but I'll keep that to myself. Let's say it seemed a bit disorganized from the outside looking in. Maybe this year would be different.

At the moment, AoE has been uploaded to CreateSpace. I'm still waiting on them to approve the file. Once they do, I'll order paperback tester copies. Once those arrive and are checked to make sure they printed correctly, I'll mail them out. There was that time CreateSpace sent me a copy that was so wrong it was obvious they didn't even look at it before shipping it to me. I had to eat the cost. Despite that, they're really easy to work with and a great way to get physical copies that aren't too expensive. Sending a file to testers is free, but I much prefer a real book. Reading off a screen is not the same as holding it in the hand. And it's a little souvenir they might appreciate. The book should be in their hands at or before the time Novel Boot Camp starts, which is the 31st. Assuming I actually participate in that. Would it be more of a nuisance(like last time) than a help? I'll have to think about it.

I'm not sure, when AoE will be out, but it shouldn't be too much longer, if I can figure out a cover.

It's about time to start going through the mystery/romance again. It's shorter than AoE, which is about YA length. I expect it to be reasonably fast depending on how much dialogue versus prose there is. Being a different genre, I think it had more prose than AoE. We'll see. Maybe turning some of the prose into dialogue would be a good direction.

I'm a bit pressed for time this week, so I'll let you go.

Have a great weekend.