Last night I finished the latest pass on the next book, AoE, going through it making fixes and changes based on feedback. I'll need to go through it at least one more time and also do a final read through. I still need to figure out a cover. I have two choices. I can pay for one, or I can paint one. Book covers are illustrations and not usually paintings. Paying is out, but I'm not sure my skills are up to a cover. I've been considering concepts that would look good but could still be a painting. The big problem is the human figure. I'm not very good at painting it. Putting people in the middle ground or the background might be doable. It would require fewer details such as facial features. I'm wrestling with it.
As previously mentioned, I've been looking at starting a business and mentioned artist's paints. Here's a video of a guy who does that. It gives a general feel of the equipment and space required. He makes oils. I would want to do acrylics. My impression now is that start up costs are too high, and it would probably be hard to scale up the business. Plus, I don't have the space.
Tesla. I've been following them for years. I was a huge fan until the Solar City bailout. That's when I put the Kool-Aid down. It made no sense. Solar City costs them an estimated $1bil a year. Mass production of the Model 3, which is necessary to save the company, hasn't happened yet. They won't be able to produce 5,000 cars a week until at least March. It looks like they'll be able to make around 180,500 cars next year unless something dramatically changes. That assumes the 5,000 per week starts March 1. Sometimes I read analyst's assessments of Tesla. From what I've read Tesla's either at or near the point that they wouldn't be able to make a profit even if they sold 200,000 Model 3s a year. They have too much debt, inefficiency etc. They're almost out of cash and are going to have to raise more very soon by borrowing or selling stock. I'm not an analyst, but I think they'll sell stock. They've already borrowed a lot and have sold corporate bonds. They can't keep doing that. Selling stock is much easier.
Tesla revealed a commercial truck last night. It's supposed to start production in the future. Where? They don't have a factory for that and don't have the money to build one. Same question for the new Roadster they revealed. Where would it be built? If they use the factories they already have, they would have to stop production on the other cars or only produce them part time.
I was a huge Tesla fan for a long time, but I'm having a hard time seeing how they can avoid bankruptcy. They're already bankrupt on paper. Even if I could afford one, I wouldn't want to buy from a company that's not profitable in the hope they'll make it. Assuming bankruptcy, would the new owner honor the warranty or alter it? I don't know. I don't know how long the bankruptcy procedure would last either. How would the car be serviced during that period? I'd love to have an electric car. Tesla's off the table until they can make a profit. The Chevy Bolt is off the table, because it's so ugly. That leaves the Nissan Leaf. The range isn't that great, but I know they'll be in business later.
Tesla's only chance seems to be to get production of the Model 3 closer to their 10,000 units a week goal. Right now they're doing about 260 a month. The longer they wait the harder it's going to be not go go bankrupt. There's going to come a point where even 300,000 units a year won't be profitable. The clock is ticking.
Have a great weekend.
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